MY STUDENT'S STRATEGIES #14
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DISCLAIMER:  Futures trading systems and commodity trading bear a high degree of risk. People can and do lose money.
Hypothetical results have many inherent limitations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 

 

ACTUAL RESULTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION, BECAUSE PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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#042: MY STUDENT'S STRATEGIES (CASE STUDY #14)

Most of the intraday strategies are created for time frames like 15-, 30- or 60-minute. But don’t be afraid to experiment a little and try something new - like the following strategy which combines 45- and 135-minute timeframe.

This is the basic setup:

 

  • Market:                                            Soybeans (S)

  • Main time frame (data1):             45-minute

  • Secondary time frame (data2):    135-minute

  • Time template:                               9:30 - 13:15

  • Exit:                                                  stop-loss or at 13:15 exchange time                                                               (avg. winning trade +663 USD)

  • Stop-loss:                                        2,000 USD-only protective, never hit                                                            (avg. losing trade -317 USD)

 

The out of sample equity curve you can see below indicates that there aren’t many big drawdowns. And it is true, the biggest one is not even 2,000 USD. To be exact, it is 1,900 USD. Such a low drawdown, together with almost 60,000 USD profit in 6 years (almost 10,000 USD per year), makes this strategy really nice candidate for almost any portfolio.

 

The equity looks really nice (don’t forget it is out of sample equity), but when you take a look at the numbers, you can truly appreciate the quality of this strategy. Though the strategy makes only 44 trades per year, low drawdown, 219 USD average trade, and 2.52 profit factor are really great numbers.

 

This strategy is good not only in the soybean market, it works pretty well also in wheat - without changing a single parameter. The number of trades is rather low, but the drawdown is still quite low and the equity is still rising.

All the information mentioned above indicate that this could be quite a robust strategy - it has really nice equity and it works not only in soybean market but in wheat as well. And it gets even better. Without any change, this strategy performs well also in the crude oil market.

 

This strategy is a perfect example of what you can get when you start thinking outside a box. Sometimes all you need is just to change the point of view, combine the time frames that are not so common and you can get really nice results. Don’t be afraid to experiment, the rewards are worth it.

 

Learn more about the workflow I teach, by clicking here and start creating your own similar systems today.

 

Happy trading!

 

Tomas

 

Click here to read more success stories.

 

 

 

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Author: Tom Nesnidal (more about me
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