# #046: MY STUDENT'S STRATEGIES (CASE STUDY #16)

For the end of the year, I have a student’s strategy for a market that we don’t have here very often - natural gas market (NG). The reason why most of the traders avoid this market is usually higher drawdown that you can experience in this market (as I have mentioned in this article). This system is an exception, the drawdown is similar to other strategies for index markets (TF, EMD, etc.). Also, what is a little bit special about this system is its almost perfect symmetry for long and short side. But let’s take a look at the basic information about the system first:

• Market:                                            Natural Gas (NG)

• Time frame:                                    15-minute

• Time template:                               8:30 - 14:30

• Exit:                                                  stop-loss or at 14:30 exchange time                                                             (avg. winning trade +532 USD)

• Stop-loss:                                        1500 USD-only protective, barely hit                                                              (avg. losing trade -463 USD)

This system was created using data from 2008 to the middle of 2016 and during this period it has earned over 90,000 USD profit. That is more than 10,000 USD per year. And with 5,000 USD drawdown we are getting annual net profit to drawdown ratio 2:1.

On the equity curve below you can see a couple of drawdown periods, but the system needs 50 trades at most to get from the drawdown. It can be almost a year. When something like this happens during the live trading, some traders would consider switching the system off, but as long as the drawdown is within the limits setup by your favourite method (e.g. Monte Carlo analysis), just keep the system running and if the system is really robust, it will bring you some nice profits.

The system has done over 90,000 USD profit in less than 9 years, the profit factor is 1.90 and the percentage of profitable trades is over 62%. Really nice numbers. But what is really interesting about this system is the symmetry for long and short trades while using the same parameters and entry/exit conditions for both sides. When you take a look at the table below, you can see that the net profit is almost evenly split between the long and the short trades, both sides (long and short) have almost the same profit factor, percentage profitable, average trade, drawdown and other statistics.

This level of symmetry is something you don’t see very often and the fact that the system works on both sides (long & short) with the same parameters, is a good sign.

Another robustness test is testing in other markets. And this system was tested on gold and crude oil and the results weren’t really good.

But there are systems that work just in a single market and still are profitable in long term. So as long as the system doesn’t exceed maximum possible drawdown, enjoy the profits that the system brings you.

Tomas

Click here to read more success stories.

##### Author: Tom Nesnidal (more about me)
###### What others are saying

"Tomas is one of the most creative traders I know. He is able to generate unique trading ideas and elegant solutions to system development challenges."

"Tomas has been a professional trader for more than a decade and I have had the privilege of monitoring his accounts in action since 2006. His systems are performing as some of the best I have ever monitored and executed. I have been in the trading industry since 2002 and worked with many developers from all over the world. Tomas is definitely the one to consider."

Martin Lembak,

MFRM, CAIA

"Tomas is a professional trader, who for the last 10 years has specialized in developing trading systems. We have been tracking his trading systems for about 5 years and they generally show very robust, stable and above average performance. Striker is pleased to work with someone like him - a real professional with enthusiasm and deep knowledge of trading."

William Galwas, President Of Striker Securities, Inc

"Personal consultation with Tom helped me to re-evaluate the complexity of my robustness testing and optimization processes. Plus, it has helped me with a specific plan on how to take things forward. It has given me some great ideas on how to avoid overfitting and make my testing more robust and provided tips on low hanging fruit in terms of the best markets to trade for intraday/short-term breakouts."

Craig Peters,

United Kingdom

"Tom's approach to Automated Trading Strategies design, tests of robustness and portfolio diversification is really unique. He has been a professional trader for many years and the depth of his understanding of Breakout strategies and Market Internals is hard to find elsewhere."

Antonin Fisher,

Hedge Fund Manager,

Czech Republic

"Tom´s systems and trading approach do really work and can bring good, stable and reasonable returns. I can highly recommend him as a teacher."

David Hruby,

"Tomas is truly an inspiring mentor and great trader with a positive life attitude. He has got very deep understanding of markets, breakout strategies, robustness testing procedures, and Market Internals."

Jan Lesanovsky,

Client, United Kingdom

"As an experienced trader, I used Tomas´s consultation to get more clarity on best-practise robustness testing procedures, risk management, and portfolio management. He was quickly able to help me refine my current trading and system development approaches, and pointed me to really practical measures that I could implement immediately. I found Tomas to be not only extremely knowledgeable but very helpful and a great teacher. This has given me more confidence in developing robust strategies that work, and I would recommend his mentoring as extremely valuable for any systems trader."

Trevor West,